The Kikuka Sho, the final leg of Japan's colts' Triple Crown, will be run over 3000 metres on the turf at Kyoto on 25 October, with two-time classic winner Robchen heading the field. Writing in a preview for Yahoo!ニュース, former Derby-winning jockey Naohiro Onishi said the race is not a foregone conclusion and picked Goin' to Sky as the horse capable of turning it over.
Onishi, who rode a Derby winner during his career, said the outcome will hinge on Robchen, the colt who took the first two legs of the Triple Crown in the spring, and on the stamina test set by the 3000-metre trip. According to Yahoo!ニュース, he described the Kyoto course as demanding: the field starts before the third corner on the back straight, covers a lap and a half, and climbs the third-corner slope twice. The tactical battle between Robchen's camp and the rivals trying to deny him the sweep is, in his view, the race's main attraction.
Why it matters
A Triple Crown in Japanese racing is rare enough that any horse arriving at the final leg with the first two wins in hand draws most of the attention. Onishi's assessment, as reported by Yahoo!ニュース, is that Robchen's form is strong but not so dominant that the result can be taken for granted. He drew a comparison with Monroe Walk, the filly who won the previous week's Grade 1 Shuka Sho, and said Robchen does not stand out to the same degree — which, in his reading, leaves room for an upset.
That framing matters for how the race is likely to be bet and watched. A two-time classic winner going for the sweep is the natural favourite, but a 3000-metre championship on a course with two climbs is a different examination from the spring classics, and it rewards horses who settle and jockeys who can ration speed over a long trip.
The case for Goin' to Sky
Onishi's alternative is Goin' to Sky, a colt whose recent record does not immediately advertise a Grade 1 win. He took the Grade 2 Aoba Sho over 2400 metres at Tokyo on 25 April, finished fourth in the Grade 1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) over the same course and distance on 31 May, and was sixth last time out in the Grade 2 St. Leger over 2200 metres at Nakayama on 13 September.
Onishi told Yahoo!ニュース that the Derby run is the performance that caught his eye: Goin' to Sky came from fifteenth at the final bend to finish within a tenth of a second of the winner. He regards the St. Leger as a race to disregard altogether, explaining that the colt never travelled on the rain-affected going and that his rider, Yutaka Take, did not press him, riding with the Kikuka Sho in mind. On that reading, the defeat did not reflect the horse's true ability, and he should be reassessed here.
The jockey booking strengthens the argument. Take has won 13 long-distance Grade 1 races across the Kikuka Sho and the Tenno Sho (Spring), run over 3200 metres at Kyoto, and Onishi said his familiarity with the course makes him the right partner for a horse trying to lower Robchen's colours. Beating the favourite, he added, requires not only the horse's raw ability but a ride that gets it to settle over the extended trip and extracts its full potential.
What to watch
The race is set for 25 October at Kyoto. The central question is whether Robchen can complete the sweep or whether a rival — Goin' to Sky, on Onishi's recommendation — can settle well enough over 3000 metres to run him down.
